Coastside Real Estate Update March 2017

shutterstock_41230294

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Mateo Coastside Feb-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $31,441,012 $27,275,857 $24,778,550 -9.2% -21.2%
Closed Sales, # Homes 29 25 24 -4.0% -17.2%
Number of Homes Active 66 71 60 -15.5% -9.1%
Number of Homes Pending 42 32 37 15.6% -11.9%
Months of Inventory 2.3 2.8 2.5 -10.7% 8.7%
Median Days on Market 17 20 20 0.0% 17.6%
Ave Days on Market 75 20 14 -30.0% -81.3%
Median Sale Price $875,000 $928,357 $883,500 -4.8% 1.0%
Ave Sale Price $1,084,173 $1,091,034 $1,032,440 -5.4% -4.8%
Ave Price per Square Foot $611 $640 $572 -10.6% -6.4%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 103.2% 101.5% 99.8% -1.7% -3.3%

 

Signs of a shift in the coastside real estate market are beginning to surface. Sales volume is down month over month and year over year. Median days on the market is creeping up to 3 weeks from 2.5 weeks last year. Median sales prices are holding their own, but average sales prices are notably down. However, the most telling stat is the sold vs asking price ratio which dipped slightly below the 100 percent threshold for the first time in two years. Ratios dropping below 100% historically correlate to a shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Rising mortgage rates may be beginning to drag on the market, but with a scant 60 homes for sale it’s bound to be a tug of war.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Real Estate Update July 2016

Ritz at Dusk

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Mateo Coastside Jul-15 Jun-16 Jul-16 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $51,721,600 $59,911,000 $59,365,129 -0.9% 14.8%
Closed Sales, # Homes 53 53 51 -3.8% -3.8%
Number of Homes Active 100 104 104 0.0% 4.0%
Number of Homes Pending 50 56 57 1.8% 14.0%
Months of Inventory 1.9 2.0 2.0 0.0% 5.3%
Median Days on Market 14 16 14 -12.5% 0.0%
Ave Days on Market 23 19 19 0.0% -17.4%
Median Sale Price $855,000 $1,008,000 $1,025,000 1.7% 19.9%
Ave Sale Price $975,879 $1,130,396 $1,164,022 3.0% 19.3%
Ave Price per Square Foot $576 $611 $597 -2.3% 3.6%
Sold vs. Asking Price 102.8% 102.7% 104.7% 1.9% 1.8%

 

There have been reports in the local media lately about the real estate market on the Peninsula and the Valley leveling off and shifting from a seller’s market to more of a balanced market. As the above market data confirms, this is clearly not the case on the coast. The San Mateo Coastside has experienced continued strong demand for homes. Sale prices for homes on the coast are up over 19% from the same time last year on both an average and median price basis. Months of Inventory is holding steady at a slim 2 months and the key indicator Sold vs Asking Price stands at a very seller friendly 104.75%. That means buyers are still bidding up homes. My opinion is the relative value of homes here on the Coastside compared to elsewhere on the Peninsula is keeping things peachy for home sellers, at least for the time being.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Moss Beach Commercial Center $1,400,000

PlanOmatic

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investors — Call your agents! I’m thrilled to be hosting a broker tour at 2385 Carlos Street in Moss Beach tomorrow 5-24-16. This large 20,909 sf parcel includes a fully rented 4-unit commercial center, 13 space parking area, and a vacant 6985 sf lot zoned for up to 10 residential units. Lots of possibilities here. For more information click my Loopnet listing or visit the KW Commercial website.

Coastside Real Estate Update November 2015

Point_Montara_Light_(2013)

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Mateo Coastside Nov-14 Oct-15 Nov-15 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $55,126,250 $44,954,900 $39,639,000 -11.8% -28.1%
Closed Sales, # Homes 51 49 37 -24.5% -27.5%
Number of Homes Active 88 94 75 -20.2% -14.8%
Number of Homes Pending 30 59 43 -27.1% 43.3%
Months of Inventory 1.7 1.9 2.0 5.3% 17.6%
Median Days on Market 26 15 16 6.7% -38.5%
Ave Days on Market 57 35 38 8.6% -33.3%
Median Sale Price $870,000 $830,000 $920,000 10.8% 5.7%
Ave Sale Price $1,080,907 $917,447 $1,071,324 16.8% -0.9%
Ave Price per Square Foot $538 $564 $556 -1.4% 3.3%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 101.8% 104.5% 102.1% -2.3% 0.3%

 

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Real Estate Update July 2015

HMB Wine & Cheese Small

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Mateo Coastside Jul-14 Jun-15 Jul-15 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $46,434,982 $44,359,043 $51,721,600 16.6% 11.4%
Closed Sales, # Homes 57 47 53 12.8% -7.0%
Number of Homes Active 141 88 85 -3.4% -39.7%
Number of Homes Pending 64 50 51 2.0% -20.3%
Months of Inventory 2.5 1.9 1.6 -15.8% -36.0%
Median Days on Market 16 13 14 7.7% -12.5%
Ave Days on Market 33 17 28 64.7% -15.2%
Median Sale Price $755,000 $801,000 $855,000 6.7% 13.2%
Ave Sale Price $814,649 $943,597 $975,879 3.4% 19.8%
Ave Price per Square Foot $513 $594 $576 -3.0% 12.3%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 101.8% 105.3% 102.8% -2.4% 1.0%

 

Looking at the numbers for July, everything continues to look good for sellers of San Mateo Coastside real estate. The scorching hot spring market has cooled slightly, but is still quite hot. The average sale price for a Coastside single family home was $975,879 in July up from only $814,659 last year for a nice rise of 19.8 percent. Median sale prices and price per square foot trends show similar strong growth. Inventory was still low compared to last year with 1.6 months of homes on the market down from 2.5 months last year, but higher than the ridiculously low 1.2 months of inventory we saw in April. Homes continue to sell fast.  It took only 14 days to sell a home in July, one day more that the previous month (median). One sign of waining strength in the market is the month over month decrease in the Sold Price vs. Asking Price ratio backing off to 102.8 percent from a super strong 105.3% in June. Anything over 100 indicates a sellers market and it certainly is still that.  It will be interesting to see if the recent volatility in the stock market has any impact on the real estate data for August. We’ll see soon enough.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Real Estate Update April 2015

House of Fire

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Mateo Coastside Apr-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $43,555,800 $47,053,100 $69,077,888 46.8% 58.6%
Closed Sales, # Homes 53 52 68 30.8% 28.3%
Number of Homes Active 126 74 76 2.7% -39.7%
Number of Homes Pending 65 60 73 21.7% 12.3%
Months of Inventory 2.4 1.4 1.1 -21.4% -54.2%
Median Days on Market 10 12 12 0.0% 20.0%
Ave Days on Market 29 32 29 -9.4% 0.0%
Median Sale Price $730,000 $851,125 $862,500 1.3% 18.2%
Ave Sale Price $821,808 $904,867 $1,015,851 12.3% 23.6%
Ave Price per Square Foot $495 $525 $551 5.0% 11.3%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 102.9% 102.2% 105.1% 2.8% 2.1%

 

There is only one way to describe the Coastside real estate market in April — Hot, Hot, Hot!!  “On Fire” may actually be more appropriate.  Nearly all the metrics above confirm the tongue-in-cheek analogy.  There were 68 homes sold on the Coastside in April, roughly 30 percent more than last year.  Months of Inventory on the market shrunk to less than half last year’s supply.  Home prices as measured by Median Sale Price, Average Sale Price, and Average Price per Square Foot were all up sharply versus last year.  However, the telltale sign of a market on fire is the Sold vs. Asking Price Ratio.  Anything over 100% indicates a good seller’s market since the buyers are on average paying more than what the sellers are asking.  Last month, the Sold vs. Asking Price Ratio was 105.1%!  The highest number in the over 10 years.  The crazy thing is May looks to be even hotter, ouch!

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Feb 2015

 

San Mateo Coastside Feb-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 MoM* YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume $26,659,000 $20,204,000 $33,125,000 64.0% 24.3%
Closed Sales, # Homes 31 25 30 20.0% -3.2%
Number of Homes Active 112 65 63 -3.1% -43.8%
Number of Homes Pending 40 37 45 21.6% 12.5%
Months of Inventory 3.6 2.6 2.1 -19.2% -41.7%
Median Days on Market (sold) 44 16 32 100.0% -27.3%
Ave Days on Market (sold) 69 27 105 288.9% 52.2%
Median Sale Price $696,000 $770,000 $906,500 17.7% 30.2%
Ave Sale Price $859,968 $808,160 $1,104,167 36.6% 28.4%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold) $516 $492 $585 18.9% 13.4%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 102.5% 102.6% 99.8% -2.7% -2.6%

 

Single family home sales volume on the Coastside exploded in February.  Sales by dollar volume increased 64% over the previous month and 24% over the same time last year.  Several positive factors came together to create an exceptionally fast moving seller’s market.  Interest rates that looked like they were heading up early in the year settled back down in February possibly inspiring on-the-fence buyers into action.  A wave of new inventory also came on the market late in January allowing sidelined buyers to jump in aggressively.  Strong upward price moves in neighboring communities on the peninsula and in the valley have created some dramatic relative home values on the coast.  The spectacular weather also no doubt played a role.  Perhaps motivating a few blizzard weary New England visitors to relocate.  Unfortunately, the rash of buying during the month did leave us with only 63 active homes on the market at the end of February down from 112 last year.  Not surprising, average and median home prices also moved up sharply last month as did average prices as measured on a “per square foot” basis.  Much of the rest of the data in the chart above was influenced by the sale of a few large estates on the south coast that had been on the market a while skewing Days on the Market and Sold vs. Asking price ratios.  Still a wonderful way to start off the spring selling season.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Jan 2015

 

San Mateo Coastside Jan 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 MoM* YoY*
Closed Sales, $ Volume $25,749,020 $30,899,550 $20,204,000 -34.6% -21.5%
Closed Sales, # Homes  34  34  25 -26.5% -26.5%
Number of Homes Active  106  71  61 -14.1% -42.5%
Number of Homes Pending  32  24  38 58.3% 18.8%
Months of Inventory  3.1  2.1  2.4 14.3% -22.6%
Median Days on Market (sold)  22  14  16 14.3% -27.3%
Ave Days on Market (sold)  52  31  27 -12.9% -48.1%
Median Sale Price $693,000 $792,500 $770,000 -2.8% 11.1%
Ave Sale Price $757,324 $908,810 $808,160 -11.1% 6.7%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold) $486 $546 $492 -9.9% 1.2%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 102.5% 101.8% 102.6% 0.8% 0.1%

 

In January 2015 sales activity on the coast decreased on both a monthly and on a year over year basis.  The inventory of home available to buy also decreased.  However, it is interesting to note that the number of homes pending (in contract to be sold) increased in January indicating that even though there were less homes to sell they were being sold quicker.  This observation is supported by the January Days on Market numbers above.  Average sales prices for homes on the Coastside softened a bit in January compared to December, but we were still up from a year ago by 11.1% (median sale prices).  It is important to call out the Average Sold Price to Asking Price Ratio increased to a strong 102.6% in January!  This means we still have a formidable seller’s market with active home buyers on average willing to pay over the asking price for Coastside homes.  From my perspective as an agent specializing in Coastside real estate, the market feels like it is heating up again supported by continued low interest rates, increasing wages and employment, and low valuations relative to elsewhere on the Peninsula.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Dec 2014

 

Coastside – Single Family Nov 2014 Dec 2014 MoM Change YoY Change
Closed Sales, $ Volume $55,126,250 $28,569,550 -48.2% -25.9%
Closed Sales, # Homes  51  31 -39.2% -26.2%
Number of Homes Active  79  62 -21.5% -38.0%
Number of Homes Pending  33  27 -18.2% -6.9%
Months of Inventory  1.5  2.0 33.3% -25.9%
Median Days on Market (sold)  26  15 -42.3% -53.1%
Ave Days on Market (sold)  57  33 -42.1% -49.2%
Median Sale Price $870,000 $780,000 -10.3% 0.6%
Ave Sale Price $1,080,907 $921,598 -14.7% 0.4%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold) $538 $540 0.4% 19.5%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 101.8% 101.5% -0.3% 1.7%

 

December saw a steep seasonal slowdown in home sales compared to November.  Year over year sales also slowed 26%.  However, the real story on the coast continues to be inventory.  At just 2 months of inventory we were down 33 percent from last year.  The reason appears to be quicker sales, just 33 days on average.   Sales prices per square foot edged up slightly  in December versus November but jumped nearly 20% from the previous year.  On average, sellers are still getting more than their asking price indicating continued strong demand for homes on the coastside.  Hopefully the new year will usher in more inventory for those desiring to live in this beautiful area.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

San Mateo Coastside – January 2014 Market Update

 

San Mateo Coastside Dec 2013 Jan 2014 %Change YoY %Change
Closed Sales, $ Volume $38,544,845 $23,956,020 -37.8% 8.0%
Closed Sales, # Homes  42  33 -21.4% -10.8%
Homes Active or Pending  114  146 28.1% 50.5%
Months of Inventory  2.7  4.4 63.0% 69.2%
Median Days on Market (sold)  32  58 81.3% 383.3%
Ave Days on Market (sold)  65  66 1.5% 88.6%
Median Sale Price $775,000 $684,000 -11.7% 21.4%
Ave Sale Price $917,734 $748,626 -18.4% 24.9%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold) $452 $492 8.8% 23.9%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price 99.8% 102.9% 3.1% 1.8%

 

Activity on the coast visibly picked up in January with a large influx of new inventory hitting the market pushing up the available supply of home to 4.4 months, a 63% increase over last month and 69% up from this time last year.  For the most part sales trends followed seasonal patterns for the slower winter months.  However, interesting points to note are the 24% and 25% annual increases in average sale price and price per square foot respectively.  Also, the sold to asking price ratio also spiked up in January to 102.9%, potentially indicating strong demand for the available inventory.  This reverses a multi month slide in this important ratio.  Along with a months of inventory reading of greater than 6 months.  A sold vs asking price below 100% favors buyers vs sellers.