Half Moon Bay

Coastside Real Estate Update March 2017

San Mateo Coastside	Feb-16	Jan-17	Feb-17	MoM*	YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$31,441,012	$27,275,857	$24,778,550	-9.2%	-21.2%
Closed Sales, # Homes	29	25	24	-4.0%	-17.2%
Number of Homes Active	66	71	60	-15.5%	-9.1%
Number of Homes Pending	42	32	37	15.6%	-11.9%
Months of Inventory	2.3	2.8	2.5	-10.7%	8.7%
Median Days on Market	17	20	20	0.0%	17.6%
Ave Days on Market	75	20	14	-30.0%	-81.3%
Median Sale Price	$875,000	$928,357	$883,500	-4.8%	1.0%
Ave Sale Price	$1,084,173	$1,091,034	$1,032,440	-5.4%	-4.8%
Ave Price per Square Foot	$611	$640	$572	-10.6%	-6.4%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	103.2%	101.5%	99.8%	-1.7%	-3.3%

Signs of a shift in the coastside real estate market are beginning to surface. Sales volume is down month over month and year over year. Median days on the market is creeping up to 3 weeks from 2.5 weeks last year. Median sales prices are holding their own, but average sales prices are notably down. However, the most telling stat is the sold vs asking price ratio which dipped slightly below the 100 percent threshold for the first time in two years. Ratios dropping below 100% historically correlate to a shift from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Rising mortgage rates may be beginning to drag on the market, but with a scant 60 homes for sale it’s bound to be a tug of war.

This market update includes market data for single family homes in Pacifica, Montara, Moss Beach, El Granada, Half Moon Bay, Pescadero, La Honda, and San Gregorio as provided by MLS Listings, Inc. and CoreLogic.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Real Estate Update July 2016

08.26.16 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	Jul-15	Jun-16	Jul-16	MoM*	YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$51,721,600	$59,911,000	$59,365,129	-0.9%	14.8%
Closed Sales, # Homes	53	53	51	-3.8%	-3.8%
Number of Homes Active	100	104	104	0.0%	4.0%
Number of Homes Pending	50	56	57	1.8%	14.0%
Months of Inventory	1.9	2.0	2.0	0.0%	5.3%
Median Days on Market	14	16	14	-12.5%	0.0%
Ave Days on Market	23	19	19	0.0%	-17.4%
Median Sale Price	$855,000	$1,008,000	$1,025,000	1.7%	19.9%
Ave Sale Price	$975,879	$1,130,396	$1,164,022	3.0%	19.3%
Ave Price per Square Foot	$576	$611	$597	-2.3%	3.6%
Sold vs. Asking Price	102.8%	102.7%	104.7%	1.9%	1.8%

There have been reports in the local media lately about the real estate market on the Peninsula and the Valley leveling off and shifting from a seller’s market to more of a balanced market. As the above market data confirms, this is clearly not the case on the coast. The San Mateo Coastside has experienced continued strong demand for homes. Sale prices for homes on the coast are up over 19% from the same time last year on both an average and median price basis. Months of Inventory is holding steady at a slim 2 months and the key indicator Sold vs Asking Price stands at a very seller friendly 104.75%. That means buyers are still bidding up homes. My opinion is the relative value of homes here on the Coastside compared to elsewhere on the Peninsula is keeping things peachy for home sellers, at least for the time being.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Real Estate Update November 2015

05.24.16 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	Nov-14	Oct-15	Nov-15	MoM*	YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$55,126,250	$44,954,900	$39,639,000	-11.8%	-28.1%
Closed Sales, # Homes	51	49	37	-24.5%	-27.5%
Number of Homes Active	88	94	75	-20.2%	-14.8%
Number of Homes Pending	30	59	43	-27.1%	43.3%
Months of Inventory	1.7	1.9	2.0	5.3%	17.6%
Median Days on Market	26	15	16	6.7%	-38.5%
Ave Days on Market	57	35	38	8.6%	-33.3%
Median Sale Price	$870,000	$830,000	$920,000	10.8%	5.7%
Ave Sale Price	$1,080,907	$917,447	$1,071,324	16.8%	-0.9%
Ave Price per Square Foot	$538	$564	$556	-1.4%	3.3%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	101.8%	104.5%	102.1%	-2.3%	0.3%

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Feb 2015

03.18.15 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	Feb-14	Jan-15	Feb-15	MoM*	YoY *
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$26,659,000	$20,204,000	$33,125,000	64.0%	24.3%
Closed Sales, # Homes	31	25	30	20.0%	-3.2%
Number of Homes Active	112	65	63	-3.1%	-43.8%
Number of Homes Pending	40	37	45	21.6%	12.5%
Months of Inventory	3.6	2.6	2.1	-19.2%	-41.7%
Median Days on Market (sold)	44	16	32	100.0%	-27.3%
Ave Days on Market (sold)	69	27	105	288.9%	52.2%
Median Sale Price	$696,000	$770,000	$906,500	17.7%	30.2%
Ave Sale Price	$859,968	$808,160	$1,104,167	36.6%	28.4%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold)	$516	$492	$585	18.9%	13.4%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	102.5%	102.6%	99.8%	-2.7%	-2.6%

Single family home sales volume on the Coastside exploded in February. Sales by dollar volume increased 64% over the previous month and 24% over the same time last year. Several positive factors came together to create an exceptionally fast moving seller’s market. Interest rates that looked like they were heading up early in the year settled back down in February possibly inspiring on-the-fence buyers into action. A wave of new inventory also came on the market late in January allowing sidelined buyers to jump in aggressively. Strong upward price moves in neighboring communities on the peninsula and in the valley have created some dramatic relative home values on the coast. The spectacular weather also no doubt played a role. Perhaps motivating a few blizzard weary New England visitors to relocate. Unfortunately, the rash of buying during the month did leave us with only 63 active homes on the market at the end of February down from 112 last year. Not surprising, average and median home prices also moved up sharply last month as did average prices as measured on a “per square foot” basis. Much of the rest of the data in the chart above was influenced by the sale of a few large estates on the south coast that had been on the market a while skewing Days on the Market and Sold vs. Asking price ratios. Still a wonderful way to start off the spring selling season.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Jan 2015

02.16.15 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	Jan 2014	Dec 2014	Jan 2015	MoM*	YoY*
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$25,749,020	$30,899,550	$20,204,000	-34.6%	-21.5%
Closed Sales, # Homes	34	34	25	-26.5%	-26.5%
Number of Homes Active	106	71	61	-14.1%	-42.5%
Number of Homes Pending	32	24	38	58.3%	18.8%
Months of Inventory	3.1	2.1	2.4	14.3%	-22.6%
Median Days on Market (sold)	22	14	16	14.3%	-27.3%
Ave Days on Market (sold)	52	31	27	-12.9%	-48.1%
Median Sale Price	$693,000	$792,500	$770,000	-2.8%	11.1%
Ave Sale Price	$757,324	$908,810	$808,160	-11.1%	6.7%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold)	$486	$546	$492	-9.9%	1.2%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	102.5%	101.8%	102.6%	0.8%	0.1%

In January 2015 sales activity on the coast decreased on both a monthly and on a year over year basis. The inventory of home available to buy also decreased. However, it is interesting to note that the number of homes pending (in contract to be sold) increased in January indicating that even though there were less homes to sell they were being sold quicker. This observation is supported by the January Days on Market numbers above. Average sales prices for homes on the Coastside softened a bit in January compared to December, but we were still up from a year ago by 11.1% (median sale prices). It is important to call out the Average Sold Price to Asking Price Ratio increased to a strong 102.6% in January! This means we still have a formidable seller’s market with active home buyers on average willing to pay over the asking price for Coastside homes. From my perspective as an agent specializing in Coastside real estate, the market feels like it is heating up again supported by continued low interest rates, increasing wages and employment, and low valuations relative to elsewhere on the Peninsula.

* MoM = Month over month change, YoY = Year over year change

Coastside Market Update Dec 2014

01.10.15 by Donald Miele

Coastside – Single Family	Nov 2014	Dec 2014	MoM Change	YoY Change
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$55,126,250	$28,569,550	-48.2%	-25.9%
Closed Sales, # Homes	51	31	-39.2%	-26.2%
Number of Homes Active	79	62	-21.5%	-38.0%
Number of Homes Pending	33	27	-18.2%	-6.9%
Months of Inventory	1.5	2.0	33.3%	-25.9%
Median Days on Market (sold)	26	15	-42.3%	-53.1%
Ave Days on Market (sold)	57	33	-42.1%	-49.2%
Median Sale Price	$870,000	$780,000	-10.3%	0.6%
Ave Sale Price	$1,080,907	$921,598	-14.7%	0.4%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold)	$538	$540	0.4%	19.5%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	101.8%	101.5%	-0.3%	1.7%

December saw a steep seasonal slowdown in home sales compared to November. Year over year sales also slowed 26%. However, the real story on the coast continues to be inventory. At just 2 months of inventory we were down 33 percent from last year. The reason appears to be quicker sales, just 33 days on average. Sales prices per square foot edged up slightly in December versus November but jumped nearly 20% from the previous year. On average, sellers are still getting more than their asking price indicating continued strong demand for homes on the coastside. Hopefully the new year will usher in more inventory for those desiring to live in this beautiful area.

San Mateo Coastside – September 2013 Market Update

10.02.13 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	Sep 2013	Aug 2013	% Change
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$36,347,250	$42,147,388	-13.8%
Closed Sales, # Homes	48	54	-11.1%
Homes Active or Pending	236	177	33.3%
Months of Inventory	4.9	3.3	48.5%
Median Days on Market (sold)	19	18	5.6%
Ave Days on Market (sold)	84	38	121.1%
Median Sale Price	$706,000	$670,750	5.3%
Ave Sale Price	$759,818	$780,507	-2.7%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold)	$435	$474	-8.2%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	100.8%	101.5%	-0.7%

The month of September started out with a bang on the Coastside as a wave of new supply hit the local real estate market. An increase in the supply of new homes is not unusual as prices rise as the have on the coast. The number of homes active or pending this month increased a whopping 33.3 percent to 236 homes from 177. Months of available inventory increased an even greater 48.5% as the seasonal slowdown in closed sales volume in September generated less sales activity to offset the increased supply. In spite of the increase in homes on the market, well priced homes continue to move briskly. According to data provided by MLS listings data, the median number of days on the market for a single family home on the coast is still a low 19 days, persisting a trend we have seen all year. Prices also remain strong especially in the sub $800,000 price range resulting in a stronger median sales price in September, up 5.3% over the previous month. All in all, the market on the Coastside remains healthy as the dominant sellers market continues to moderate creating a more balanced environment where buyers have more choices and well priced homes sell quickly.

San Mateo Coastside – August 2013 Market Update

09.11.13 by Donald Miele

San Mateo Coastside	August 2013	Jul-13	% Change
Closed Sales, $ Volume	$40,752,388	$41,424,788	-1.6%
Closed Sales, # Homes	52	53	-1.9%
Homes Active or Pending	208	195	6.7%
Months of Inventory	4.0	3.7	8.1%
Ave Days on Market (sold)	40	47	-14.9%
Median Sale Price	$670,750	$740,000	-9.4%
Ave Sale Price	$783,700	$781,600	0.3%
Ave Price per Square Foot (sold)	$475	$442	7.5%
Sold Price vs. Asking Price	101.6%	102.3%	-0.7%

August was another strong month for residential real estate on the San Mateo coast. Although the number of homes sold and the total dollar volume of homes sold decreased slightly from July to August, this could just as likely be the result of the slower sales activity common in late summer as it could be often touted external factors such as higher interested rates. Interesting was the sharp move up in the price per square foot ratio last month to $475 a square foot. According to MLS Listings data, this is the highest price per square foot ratio we’ve seen on the coast in over five years. The average sale price for homes on the coast also increased slightly to $783, 700 from $781,600 last month. However, the median sale price dropped to $670,750 or 9.4% from July indicating a higher mix of lower priced homes. The higher prices also brought in more sellers to increase the months of inventory to 4.0 months. This is the most inventory we’ve had on the coast since the market shifted last spring. The premium buyers are willing to pay moderated in August from 102.3% to 101.6% perhaps signaling a subtle shift to a more balanced market.